Serving Bills Fans Since 1998 Home Bills Playoff Scenarios Team has next to no chance of making the playoffs by Scott Brown December 17, 2002 Looking for a mathematical probability of the Bills making the playoffs? Here are the scenarios where the Bills would grab the wildcard. All hinge upon Buffalo winning its last two games. The probability of the Bills making the playoffs is 15.4% * 78.8% * 16.5% = 2.00% That assumes they win their last two. Factoring in their probability of winning the last two their probability is 0.42%. AFC East - Total Probability (15.4%) One of two scenarios must occur: 1) New England loses their last two games and Jets lose to Green Bay. (Miami wins division, Buffalo wins wild card) (11.44%) 2) Miami loses their last two games, New England loses to the Jets, and Jets lose to Green Bay. (New England wins tiebreak for division, Buffalo would win tiebreak for wild card over Miami.) (3.93%) AFC North - Total Probability (78.8%) One of three scenarios must occur: 1) Neither Cleveland nor Baltimore win their last two games. (Pittsburgh wins division, no wild card above 8-8) (58.3%) 2) Baltimore wins their last two, Tampa Bay beats Pittsburgh. (Baltimore wins division, Buffalo ahead of 8-7-1 Pittsburgh for wild card) (14.7%) 3) Cleveland wins their last two, Tampa Bay and Baltimore beat Pittsburgh. (Cleveland wins division, Buffalo ahead of 8-7-1 Pittsburgh for wild card) (5.8%) AFC South - Total Probability (100%) Both Indianapolis and Tennessee will make the playoffs if the Bills make it. AFC West - Total Probability (16.5%) One of the following eight scenarios must play out. 1) Oakland wins their last two, KC beats SD, SD beats Seattle, Arizona beats Denver. (3.85%) 2) Oakland wins their last two, SD beats KC, Seattle beats SD, Denver beats Arizona. (4.92%) 3) Oakland wins their last two, KC and Seattle beat SD, Arizona beats Denver. (2.57%) 4) Oakland wins their last two, SD beats KC, Seattle beats SD, Arizona beats Denver. (1.15%) 5) Oakland beats Denver, KC beats Oakland, SD beats KC, Seattle beats SD, Denver beats Arizona. (2.11%) 6) Oakland beats Denver, KC beats Oakland, SD beats KC, Seattle beats SD, Arizona beats Denver. (0.49%) 7) Denver beats Oakland, Oakland and SD beat KC, Seattle beats SD, Arizona beats Denver. (0.49%) 8) Denver and KC beat Oakland, SD beats KC, Seattle beats SD, Denver beats Arizona. (0.90%) All probabilities are derived from mratings.com. Comments to the author Articles Index Back to Bills Daily Homepage