It’s draft time and I’m officially excited.

The casual football fan will let this weekend come and go without much notice. He’ll hear a blurb on the news at some point and hear who their local team selected in the first round. This is the same guy who doesn’t even know the NFL schedule is out or that veterans will be cut on June 1 in salary cap moves. He’ll be stunned to learn that Kurt Warner will be a free agent and playing elsewhere next season.

It’s different when you’re a football nut. I myself am not much of a college football fan, so my draft knowledge isn’t on par with some of the serious draft “experts” out there. While I’ve had April 24-25th circled on my calendar for months and I’m already plotting which Bills games I will attend this year (and where I’ll be watching the rest on TV), I fall well short of the fanaticism displayed by hardcore draftniks. I can’t give you the 40-yard times of every receiver in the draft. I can’t tell you off the top of my head how tall Roy Williams is or the playing weight of Tommie Harris. I can’t tell you how many yards Phillip Rivers has in his high school career. I haven’t done a single mock draft either with fellow draft geeks or by myself. I haven’t grown and styled my hair like Mel Kiper. The scary thing is, there are many people out there who have done many or all of these things in preparation for this weekend (you know who you are – get help).

By now you’re probably tired of every football nut you know telling you how the draft is going to unfold. Everyone from football experts on the Internet down to your dental hygienist has weighed in with whom the Bills will draft (for the record, my dental hygienist think the Bills will draft Will Smith but what does she know – she’s never been a cab driver). In any event, just to further enrage those who don’t like me, I’m going to give you my analysis of the tealeaves – enjoy it or not.

Anyone who reads the Internet message boards about the Bills knows that the natives are getting restless after a long stretch without football (and the pain of watching New England win a Super Bowl). They’ve thought up just about every bizarre scenario possible for the draft from trading up to #1 to trading down for extra picks. Some scenarios say we will trade a player to make a move and nobody is safe from the imagination of some of these fans – Travis Henry, Willis McGahee, Drew Bledsoe and Eric Moulds have all been traded in the minds of overzealous fans. About the only thing I haven’t heard proposed in a post starting out, “If I were Tom Donahoe…” is to trade Rusty Jones and Billy Buffalo to San Diego for the #1 pick this year and a mascot to be named later.

As I see it, none of these wild trades will happen – they almost never do. It’s fun to think about blockbuster deals on draft day, but they usually don’t happen. In all honesty I don’t see the Bills doing much to move from their spot at #13.

The Bills have needs in a bunch of areas and this allows them to get something decent wherever they pick. They are targeting a WR, a young QB for the future, defensive line help (most likely at DE), more options at TE, safety, and FB and depth at CB and OL. While some needs are probably greater than others, the Bills aren’t in desperate need of any one of these positions. While it would be nice to fill needs through value in the draft, there are other options if they don’t get the right guy at a specific position this weekend.

Because the Bills have a wide variety of needs I believe that they will stay put at #13 and see whom they can get at that spot. Someone will likely fall and they won’t have to trade up. They also won’t need to trade down if they feel they are getting a good deal with someone at #13 – they’re not like San Diego who has so many needs they may focus on volume.

The flexibility the Bills have makes it hard to say for certain whom they will take. Staying at #13 I think they will take one of the top 3 QBs if they are available (Manning, Roethlisberger or Rivers). There’s a good chance these guys will be gone by the Bills pick, so they could just as easily go with a top WR – Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans (it’s doubtful that Larry Fitzgerald is still available and Mike Williams has been barred from the draft). This might be the right spot to take a top DE – Will Smith or Kenechi Udeze – not too high or too low for this pick. They could also go with a TE like Ben Troup or Ben Watson, but this may be a reach at #13. In any event, I think you can see that there are a myriad of options depending on who is still available, so the Bills are in a decent spot.

Because Tom Donahoe is a good player of mind games, listening to his comments on the draft isn’t that helpful. He’s said the Bills will likely take a QB on day 1 – everyone knows the Bills need a quarterback of the future. He’s said some good things about some of the receivers in the draft and it’s no secret the Bills want a #2 guy to complement Moulds. It’s possible that he covets a specific guy so much that he’ll move up just to ensure he becomes a Bill, but he’s given no signs yet that his sights are set on a single player.

What’s interesting is that nobody, neither media nor the Bills front office, have said much about the DE position. My guess is that this may be by design – don’t talk about what you’re looking to draft and let everyone else make assumptions about the way you’ll go based on seemingly more glaring needs. Let people talk about WR – this draft is very deep at the position and the Bills can get good value in the second round at that position. Let others talk about QB – if he’s there at #13 great, if not you can look there in round 2 or 3 (or perhaps later) – you don’t need to break the bank and move up. Stealthily, the Bills can select at DE if they don’t like who “fell” to #13.

My guess then?

Kenechi Udeze – DE from USC at #13.

Alternate choices:

Phillip Rivers – QB from NC State (if the Bills move up)
Roy Williams – WR from Texas (if he falls)
Lee Evans – WR from Wisconsin (if the Bills trade down a bit)