If you had told me at the beginning of the season that the Bills would finish over .500 for the first time in a decade and would win two of the games on their December schedule, including winning in Gillette Stadium for the first time ever, I wouldn’t have believed you. If you somehow managed to convince me, and along the way say that the team would have a real shot at the playoffs I would have been pretty giddy – December wins, A Patriot win and playoffs are things Bills fans don’t get much.

Despite my disbelief, I am here, a day after a win in New England, looking at the NFL standings which show the Bills have gone 9-7. I really should be happy, but I’m not – I’m actually pretty depressed.

I like that the Bills had a winning season – I really do. Maybe I got greedy watching the team – the playoffs were a longshot when you consider New England winning the division was almost a forgone conclusion and the path to the postseason would be to be one of the top teams in the entire AFC.

There were some exciting moments to the Bills’ season, most notably a late season win over Green Bay where the defense shut down Aaron Rodgers and the playoffs seemed possible. Watching the defense dominate on multiple occasions and showing that Pro Bowl bids for three of the starting front four was a mistake, only in that Jerry Hughes was left out, was great. Sammy Watkins was fun to watch, even if there were stretches where he barely saw the ball. Dan Carpenter was fun to root for as he proved to be one of the top kickers in the league – he hit from distance and it clutch situations.

My depression stems not from what the Bills achieved on the field, but what they did not accomplish. There were several games the Bills should have won but just never seemed to show up and play to their potential – games against Houston, Kansas City and Miami as well as an emotional home contest against New England. All of these games were winnable games, and the Bills came out flat each time. Win even one more of those games and you might be talking about a game next weekend.

I know – every team, especially one in Buffalo’s class, loses games they should have won. They also win a few they probably should have lost – the Minnesota and Detroit games come to mind. This is what happens when you’re inconsistent.

Looking back and thinking what might have been had the Bills played up to their capabilities is nothing new – I seem to do it at the end of every season. It’s depressing, but with enough analysis I usually decide that the Bills finished just about where they deserved to finish – not one of the top teams, but not one of the bottom teams, either.

I guess what depresses me most is a lack of hope. As I look into the new NFL year I’m having a hard time seeing how things change much for the better. It seems like the Bills are treading water, just like they always do. We’re not drowning, but we’re not going anywhere, either.

Just like Groundhog Day, the Bills find themselves lacking a quarterback that can bring them to the next level. J.P. Losman’s play was exciting at times and downright terrible at others – he’s not a starting caliber quarterback. Oh, I’m sorry, I meant Trent Edwards. Wait, not Edwards, Kelly Holcomb. Oh, not Holcomb, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Nope – I’ve got that wrong – I meant EJ Manuel. Whoops – I meant to say Kyle Orton. Get the picture about just how interchangeable all these guys are? The seasons pass by and every year we seem to be glad we won’t be seeing last year’s quarterback who we initially thought had promise and won some games before turning into someone who couldn’t find a way to pass the ball as the offense came to a grinding halt.

Orton’s not coming back, much to the chagrin of Bills fans and probably a front office who may not have felt he was worth $5 million next season – his retirement makes it a moot point. Manuel is under contract for next year, but after regressing in his sophomore year I’m not too sure how excited coaches and fans will be to see him as the starting quarterback in 2015. Do people really feel that Manuel sitting for the last 12 games of the season is suddenly going to allow him to grow his game and blossom into a quarterback good enough to get the Bills to the playoffs? That seems like a bigger stretch than the Bills drafting him in the first round in 2013.

The free agent and draft options for the Bills are bleak when it comes to quarterbacks. In a league where passing offenses rule, quarterbacks are at a huge premium and if you didn’t already know it, there’s a major shortage of good quarterbacks. Even if there were good options in free agency the Bills would be competing against sever other teams who need an upgrade at signal caller.

Buffalo lacks major currency to obtain a new quarterback – they don’t have a first round draft pick in April. They could opt to draft a quarterback at the #50 spot in the second round, but the chances that such a player would come in and be a solid player in his rookie year are almost unimaginable (if your best strategy is to somehow catch lightning in a bottle you’re in deep trouble). The most likely way to land a decent quarterback would be to trade for a backup from another team, but that requires that you have currency for a trade and that you find the right target (given the track record of evaluating QB talent and finding the right guy for the job, having the current Bills organization target the right backup scares the bejezus out of me).

The Bills have other problems this offseason, but I’m much more optimistic they’ll find a way to address those problems. I think they’ll find a way to upgrade the offensive guard positions – they won’t get Pro Bowlers, but just about anything would be an upgrade. I think they might just find a way to keep Hughes and keep the defensive front four together another year. We’ve probably seen the last of C.J. Spiller in a Bills uniform, but his extended absence this year proves that the Bills can probably survive without him (especially if they take a running back in the later rounds of the draft this year). Kiko Alonso will be back next season, and Brandon Spikes could be here as well.

Sadly, I think the only make or break problem for the Bills this offseason is quarterback and I just don’t see how that gets resolved, at least well enough for the Bills to make the playoff next year. My greatest fear is that we’ll once again tune in to see the Bills look decent in a couple of games only to see them go on a stretch where the offense can’t find any way to move the ball. I can hear the fans groaning now as the Bills go multiple games without a touchdown or as another great defensive effort is wasted on an offense that can do little more than go three and out. To be hopeful at this point seems to be blindly wishing on some sort of miracle to happen – for the Bills to pick up a cast-off from another team who turns out to be a solid quarterback, to draft a late round rookie who impresses or to see Manuel suddenly improve into the quarterback few but the Bills believed he could be. These are all tremendous long shots, and this is what gets me depressed. 15 years and counting is a long time to tread water.