Football season is upon us, and there’s almost no time of the year that’s quite as exciting. When I was a kid I could feel the electricity amping up as we got closer and closer to Christmas, but as an adult that electricity builds as we approach what I lovingly refer to as “week 1” (yes, during football seasons all weeks are referred to by their NFL week number).

The offseason has been anything dull for Bill fans. New coach. Blockbuster trade to acquire a superstar running back. Last year’s top defense is largely intact and the offense has been upgraded. A fresh young and exciting new quarterback. On paper the Bills appear to be a much better team than the one that finished 9-7 a year ago.

It’s hard not to get excited about the upcoming season. Some of the excitement comes from the start of real football – full games with starting players that count in the standings, and part of it comes from thinking that things are looking up for the Bills.

I want to be optimistic about the Bills in 2015, but years of disappointment and heartbreak make me wary that my optimism may be rewarded with a soul-crushing season of mediocrity or worse, a step back from last season’s progress.

I can feel the war inside my head. My optimistic side thinks the Bills could finally take the next step, be one of the better teams in the league and make the playoffs for the first time since the Clinton administration. But everyone has a darker side – the one that laughs at other people’s fails, does what he wants and can’t wait for the new Slayer album out on Friday.

This could be the year. I know that I allow myself to think that to a degree every year, but this year I mean it. I’m not counting us out of anything. Weeks 1 and 2 against two of the top teams in the AFC – Indianapolis and New England – I think the Bills actually have a real shot to win one or both. Heck, even today’s betting line was only Buffalo getting 2.5 points – I guess I’m not the only person who doesn’t count this as an automatic win for Indy.

Welcome back to the start of another mediocre season, sucker – why are you so excited for this ever year? Winning on Sunday? It’s crazy to consider the Bills to be in the same company as a team like Indianapolis. Really, the Bills are going to beat Indy? Beat New England? Buffalo may be improved since last year, but let’s not get carried away. It is very likely that the Bills could start the season 0-2 or 0-3 – then where we be, Captain Optimist? Seriously – don’t get caught up in the hype this year – expect the losses and it won’t be so crushing when they happen.

Rex Ryan is a solid coach and he seems to be all-in in Buffalo. He brought the Jets to the playoffs with a mediocre quarterback and a strong defense, and this Buffalo team is better than that squad. Rex is a great defensive mind and he has a fantastically talented group with which to work. Offensively Greg Roman has proven success and brings creativity to that side of the ball. The Bills may not win every game, but they will not be out-coached.

So Rex is the exciting new coach this time, huh? Guess what – every time there’s a new coach it’s exciting and look who we’ve had – Doug Marrone, Chan Gailey – you were even excited about Dick Jauron – Dick Jauron! Rex got run out of New York and Greg Roman got run out of San Francisco. Just because Rex has a big personality and a big truck doesn’t mean he’s going to bring big wins – go eat a dog biscuit.

The Legend of Kiko was fun, but we played without him last season and had a good defense – bring on a star running back like LeSean McCoy! McCoy is special – he’s slippery and can catch the ball. With better guard play this season he could be the offensive superstar and centerpiece the Bills have lacked for years. Give McCoy the rock 20 times a game and good things will happen.

McCoy’s a solid back, but the season hasn’t started and he’s already hurt. He won’t be 100% on Sunday and the more he plays the less likely he is to get back to full health – not something you want to think about with 16 games to go. Funny how a guy drafted in the top 5 of almost every fantasy draft last year is now going outside of the top 15 running backs this year – he’s going to get 250+ carries this season and his value has plummeted because he’s in Buffalo. The only folks who think McCoy is going to be a top 5 running back are Bills fans.

I am so excited to see what we have at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor – he was dynamic in the preseason. Can you believe that after a slow start all three Bills quarterbacks showed enough to make an argument to be the starter? Taylor can make plays with his feet and cause a defense to respect his scrambling ability, but he also showed he can stand in the pocket and make throws, including the deep ball. Taylor may lack experience, but he looks like he could be the total package. I don’t know how high Taylor’s ceiling is, but he could be the next diamond in the rough – Flutie, Warner, even Brady – a guy overlooked by everyone until he proves he can play and excel in the NFL – can you imagine if the Bills have finally found a franchise quarterback?

Tyrod Taylor – anyone outside of Buffalo and Baltimore ever hear of this guy? Nobody outside of those markets is expecting anything from this guy. There’s a reason he was a 6th round draft choice who saw almost no action – he’s raw and inconsistent. Sure, he made some nice plays in the preseason, but do you really think he can keep up a high level of play all season? They guy barely beat out Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel for the job – that’ hardly a reason to get excited. The Bills seem destined to continue their search for a solid quarterback for all eternity – by week 5 the fans will be screaming for someone else to be quarterback.

The Bills are loaded with talent this season – they have a roster that matches up against anybody in the league. The defense has what it takes to be the best in the league and the offense I loaded with playmakers. If the Bills can avoid terrible injuries and players live up to their potential the team can get to the playoffs, maybe even take the division.

Win the division? Ha! The Bills barely had a winning record last season – if New England had cared about their game the Bills would have finished at .500 The Patriots are still the Patriots – immune from anything they do, Miami has improved markedly since last season and the Jets have some talent as well, especially the defense. The Bills are not a lock to even split against their division rivals, much less sweep any. Seriously, this could be a 6 win team as easily as it could be a 10 win team, but you won’t hear that from Bills fans.

So embrace the excitement of the season – this is our Christmas! This is our time! Get pumped up! Or save yourself the heartache and prepare for another season stuck in neutral – the more excited you get, the rougher ride is going to be – let those other saps set themselves up for the fall while you set realistic expectations.