Week 11: Bills vs. Patriots
at
Monday, Nov. 23rd
8:30pm ET
The Bills are flying high after winning two games in five days. They are also well rested after having what amounts to a mini bye which gave them their second period of extended time in a month. That has allowed them to get healthier as they take on their undefeated arch nemesis New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Pats are banged up heading into the game after barely surviving against the Giants on Sunday.

FACTS AND FIGURES

Matchup: Buffalo (5-4) vs. New England (9-0)
Place: Gillette Stadium
TV/Radio: Network: ESPN; DirecTV: 206; Sirius: 83
Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Lisa Salters
Spread: Patriots by 7
Series: Patriots lead 67-42-1 (Bills 0-1 in Playoffs)
Streak: Patriots Won 1
Last Meeting: Patriots 40-32 in Buffalo (2015)
Patriots Offense: Rush (27th); Pass (2nd); overall (2nd)
Patriots Defense: Rush (2nd); Pass (22nd); overall (15th)
Bills Offense: Rush (2nd); Pass (29th); overall (23rd)
Bills Defense: Rush (9th); Pass (18th); overall (16th)


INJURY UPDATE

The Bills continue to get healthy after they were ravaged by injuries the first half of the season. Thanks to a well-timed bye week and more rest with a mini bye following a Thursday night game, the Bills only have two active players out with injuries. Kyle Williams will miss the game with a PCL injury. Cyrus Kouandjio has missed two straight games with a knee injury and may still be out.

The Patriots lost one of their best players last week when Julian Edelman broke his foot. A week earlier they lost RB Dion Lewis who had a huge game in Orchard Park early in the season. The Patriots offensive line is also banged up especially at tackle where Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, and Marcus Cannon are currently sidelined. Vollmer may miss this game as he remains in concussion protocol, Solder is definitely out but Cannon has a chance to return for this game. One of their best linebackers Jamie Collins has been battling a virus that has cost him two games. He may return this week if the gets his strength back. Starting cornerback Tarell Brown is also sidelined.

Check out our Bills Daily Injury Page throughout the week for the latest updates on the injured players.

KEY MATCHUPS

LT Cordy Glenn vs. DE Chandler Jones:
Glenn is having a good year but will have his hands full against the NFL sack leader in Jones who has 10½ sacks on the season and is a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He will likely get some help from Richie Incognito.

WR Sammy Watkins vs. CB Malcolm Butler:
Watkins if getting healthier and more productive at the same time. Butler will likely follow him all over the field making this a matchup to watch. He is building on his game ending interception in last year's Super Bowl becoming one of the better cover corners in the league.

DEs Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes vs. Patriots Tackles:
We don't know who will be playing tackle for the Patriots since they are decimated with injuries at the position. This should allow Super Mario and Hughes to have big games. If they don't take advantage of the depleted group than the Bills won't have a chance to pull off the upset.

CB Stephon Gilmore vs. TE Rob Gronkowski:
Gilmore says they have a plan to keep Gronk in check. That may include using their best cover corner on a tight end as Gronk is the best receiver on the team with Edelman sidelined. The Western New York native has always played well against his hometown team. They won't stop him but they can only hope to contain him.

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Win Turnover Battle: It's going to be extremely difficult to beat New England as it is but it will be nearly impossible to do it if they lose the turnover battle. New England does not give the ball away a lot but neither does the Bills who are one shy of a franchise record for most turnover free games in a season. The Bills have gone four games without turning the ball over, winning all of them.

2. Pressure Brady: Yes we have heard over and over again that he gets rid of the ball fast but the Bills need to get constant pressure against him to have him rush the ball out of his hands. If you rattle Brady he has been known to make mistakes. The Bills should be able to do it against a banged up offensive line especially with Brady possibly holding the ball longer with Edelman out.

3. Establish The Run: For the second week in a row the Bills face one of the best run defense in the league. They were successful against the Jets and need to be successful again. If they can get yardage on the ground they can shorten the game and keep Brady from having too much time with the ball in his hands.

BILLS DAILY PREDICTION

The Bills are a better and healthier team than they were when these two teams met in Orchard Park the 2nd week of the season. That should give the Bills a chance to be competitive but the Patriots are the Patriots and they own the Bills especially at Gillette Stadium. Look for the Bills to battle hard and keep it close but pulling off the upset is hard to imagine:
Patriots 30, Bills 24

Season Prediction Record: (5-4)
Season Record Against The Spread: (4-5)

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